News & Investment Updates From Ribbon Falls Wealth Management

In investing, the allure of certainty can be hard to resist. When parts of a portfolio underperform in the short term, the urge to abandon them grows, driven by a desire to focus solely on what’s working. But this desire often leads investors away from the principles of diversification — principles designed to build resilience over time, not deliver comfort in the moment.

Behavioral psychology helps explain why.

Recency bias, our tendency to overemphasize recent outcomes, tempts us to double down on short-term winners while discarding slower-moving assets. This instinct is natural but can be dangerous. It ignores the fact that markets are dynamic, and today’s laggards can often become tomorrow’s leaders.

For trend followers, diversification is non-negotiable. A systematic, data-driven approach can be used to allocate across markets — knowing that not every position will perform at the same time. This discipline ensures the portfolio is ready for whatever comes next, even if it means enduring temporary discomfort.

Resilience, not perfection, is the goal.

A well-diversified portfolio isn’t built to make every position shine in every market. It’s built to adapt. This means accepting the ebb and flow of performance without second-guessing the process. In moments when diversification feels frustrating, it’s worth remembering that resilience comes from sticking to the plan, not reacting to short-term noise.

As the year draws to a close, predictions about what’s ahead will swirl. Inevitably, many will miss the mark. That’s why we focus on a systematic approach, allowing markets — not opinions — to guide us. While systematic trend following isn’t immune to challenges, its emphasis on discipline and adaptability has repeatedly demonstrated value in helping navigate uncertainty.

In this Investment Update, we explore how diversification and discipline shaped our approach in another year of unexpected twists and turns.

But first, here’s a summary of the global asset classes utilized in our portfolios and their exposures for December.

As the election season unfolds, markets can become a reflection of a broader, collective sentiment — sometimes swayed by predictions, fears, and assumptions about the future. In times like these, emotional investing is seemingly at an all-time high, with many investors feeling the pull to respond to headlines and perceived market shifts. But while the news cycle may push for reaction, our approach remains the same: disciplined, systematic trend following.

In investing, staying the course requires a willingness to let markets tell us where the real opportunities are, even when external forces attempt to predict or sway. At Ribbon Falls Wealth Management, we aim to bypass the noise by anchoring our decisions to repeatable and reliable systems rather than attempting to read the political or economic tea leaves. It’s a steady-handed strategy, and while it may not grab headlines, we believe it’s the surest way to deliver long-term, repeatable results.

Does this mean we’ll always be well-positioned for whatever happens in upcoming elections? That’s unknowable until after the fact. However, we take confidence in the principle that price often predicts news. In other words, should a downside surprise in markets occur as a response to election results or any other event, systematic investing strategies that use a trend-following approach will provide predetermined exits aimed at limiting downside risk so clients can survive another day.

Alongside the election, the unprecedented rise in NVIDIA’s market cap has been the talk of the town. Therefore, in this Investment Update, we discuss:

• The potential risks of market concentration
• Why a disciplined trend-following approach has kept us positioned in NVIDIA through market shifts
• How staying committed to trends, even during periods of uncertainty, supports both growth and risk management
• Why a consistent systematic approach can provide investors with a reliable framework regardless of market or political cycles

But first, here’s a summary of the global asset classes utilized in our portfolios and their exposures for November.