News & Investment Updates From Ribbon Falls Wealth Management

Investment Update

2024 Was A Tale Of Two Halves

It’s easy to stay disciplined when things are going smoothly. When markets rise steadily and portfolios deliver consistent gains, the urge to deviate from the plan feels almost nonexistent. But discipline is truly tested when the tide shifts and moments of uncertainty creep in.

The irony of easier times is that they can dull our readiness for challenges. When the path has been smooth, it’s human nature to expect more of the same — to relax the guardrails and let emotions sneak into decision-making.

Yet, resilience in investing, as in life, is built not during the good times but in how we prepare for and respond to the hard ones.

As 2025 begins to unfold, it’s worth reflecting on how quickly conditions can shift. A year of strong trends can easily be followed by stretches that test patience. It’s in those moments of doubt, discomfort, and even frustration that the value of a systematic, long-term plan becomes most apparent. While the temptation to chase quick fixes or abandon time-tested processes may arise, those who endure with discipline often find themselves better positioned when conditions turn again.

In this month’s Note, we reflect on how sticking to a disciplined, systematic process through both easy and challenging market conditions builds resilience over time. By revisiting the “tale of two markets” from 2024 — where fortunes varied dramatically between the first and second halves of the year — we explore how short-term fluctuations can test resolve but ultimately reinforce the value of long-term commitment. The lessons learned serve as a reminder that successful investing isn’t about avoiding volatility but about enduring it with discipline.

But first, here’s a summary of the global asset classes utilized in our portfolios and their exposures for February.

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News

Predictions: The Ugly Sweater Of Financial Markets

The months of November, December, and January are chock full of traditions. Family dinners, presents, tree-cutting journeys, ugly sweater parties, and matching pajamas (don’t ask) are all emblematic of this time of year.

In the financial markets, the equivalent to the ugly sweater party is the making of market predictions for the year ahead. Sure, it’s fun, they’re cute, and they grab attention. But ultimately, they are useless and thus a waste of time. (Yes, I’m aware I sound like Scrooge right now.)

One need look no further than 2024 to be reminded (once again) of the futility of market predictions. By some accounts, the average of 2024 forecasts had the S&P 500 Index closing at 4,861, yet in reality the year closed with the benchmark index closing higher than 5,880 – that’s an error of about 21%…on average. Yikes.

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Archive: News & Investment Updates

Investment Update


Bearish. Bullish. But Also Indifferent.

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Investment Update


Resilience Is the Goal, Not Perfection

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Investment Update


Why We Don't Try to Read Political or Economic Tea Leaves

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News


How Trend Following Handles Market Shocks & Drawdowns

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